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Whether Greece leaves the eurozone or not, the country is headed for even more pain

Pensioners sit and wait on the steps outside a closed main branch of the National Bank of Greece SA in the hope that it might open in Thessaloniki, Greece, on Monday, June 29, 2015. Greece shut its banks and imposed capital controls in an announcement designed to avert the collapse of its financial system, heightening the risk it will be forced out of the euro.

Greece is supposed to spend the money for International Monetary Fund (IMF) almost 1.6-billion euros by next weekend. It\’ll almost certainly miss that payment. Its hopes of securing an extension of bailout funding in the IMF, European Union and European Central Bank are nearing zero. That mark is going to be hit unless Greece and it is creditors somehow snatch resolution in the jaws of debacle.

Five ways this mess in Greece could shake out

Greece has never been this close to default and financial markets are panicking. But what exactly is the country’s fate? Here’s a look at how the scenarios could engage in and what this means for the world

Probably, perhaps certainly, they won\’t.

If the failure of last-ditch talks a week ago didn\’t see to that, then Greek Pm Alex Tsipras\’s surprise announcement he would hold a referendum next weekend around the creditors\’ draft proposal did.

In the meantime, Greeks are voting using their debit cards, and you can\’t blame them. They have been doing it for days now, arranging at ATMs to get cash out in case the banks don\’t open on Monday. After which on Sunday, Greece announced the bank doors would indeed be closed the following day. Smart Greeks.

You can see what Tsipras is thinking, though. A referendum could be a master stroke in domestic politics. If Greeks vote \”yes\” to the creditors\’ proposal, Tsipras will have political cover to basically renege on the promises he made to get elected in January. (You know, securing debt forgiveness, protecting pensions, telling creditors to stuff it, etc.) If Greeks vote \”no,\” he reaches honour those promises by defaulting on payments and even perhaps pulling out from the eurozone, which would allow the adoption and devaluation of a new currency.

The creditors are clearly miffed. Even with a \”yes\” vote, it isn\’t clear that they\’ll care to return to the table for additional talks which will go nowhere. They do not trust Tsipras. They\’ve already refused to grant a few more days of bailout funding long enough for him to hold his domestic gut-check.

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