Why aren’t markets freaking out more about the Greek crisis?

Markets didn't seem particularly troubled by the crisis in Greece on Monday.

These three things are true:

Five scenarios for Greece within the coming days

Konstantinos Tsakalidis/Bloomberg

A missed payment by Greece (the country must pay the International Monetary Fund US$1.7 billion by Tuesday night) isn\’t necessarily the end of the world. Here\’s a take a look at five ways in which the Greece scenario could engage in this week.

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The likelihood that Greece could leave the eurozone, devalue its currency and repudiate its debts more than doubled during the weekend.

The chance of that event had sent tremors of fear through global markets from early 2010 through the middle of 2012, creating wild swings available and bond markets.

And Monday, the market reaction to seeing Greece finally get to the edge of default was pretty quiet, as these things go. European stocks fell 3 percent. Spanish and Italian bonds fell, pushing rates in those countries up, only to a mere 2.35 per cent and 2.39 per cent, respectively, for 10-year-bonds, very low by historical standards. The U.S. stock exchange was down a mere 0.6 percent in the morning as the market initially priced in Greek developments, and by the afternoon it was down 1.9 per cent as measured by the Standard & Poor\’s 500 index.

In short, financial markets are concerned and think that the Greek crisis could damage the earnings of European companies making investors a little more wary of your debt of other Southern European countries. But they\’re not remotely betting the situation will spin out of control and lead to a full-fledged unraveling of the eurozone or perhaps a recession across Europe.

That is within contrast with previous flash points within the Greek crisis, including May 2010; November 2010; July through December 2011; and could 2012, when each day\’s trading activity would be a referendum on whether some catastrophic outcome became more likely or less.